“人口与社会政策大讲堂”第十七期:Are the Most Productive Regions Necessarily the Most Successful?
讲座名称：
“人口与社会政策大讲堂”第十七期:Are the Most Productive Regions Necessarily the Most Successful?
讲座时间：
2016-06-06
讲座人：
Mark Partridge
形式：
校区：
兴庆校区
实践学分：
讲座内容：
讲座名称：“人口与社会政策大讲堂”第十七期
讲座题目：Are the Most Productive Regions Necessarily the Most Successful?
讲座地点：公共政策与管理学院实验中心会议室
讲座时间：2016年6月6日（周一），16：00-17：30
讲座人： Mark Partridge 教授
讲座内容简介
Are the Most Productive Regions Necessarily the Most Successful?
Abstract: Economists typically celebrate productivity growth as the way to improve living standards for the general population. In addition, economists also advocate that particular cities and regions should strive to be as productive as possible in order to attract businesses and increase employment. However, while productivity growth can reduce cost or improve quality, if demand is not sufficiently responsive or elastic, then labor demand may decrease, reducing employment in the location. Productivity growth may be skill biased, creating larger wage gaps that increase the area’s inequality or poverty. Thus, there may be a fallacy of composition in that productivity growth is good for society as a whole, but the most productive locations may face some unintended consequences associated with productivity growth that may reduce quality of life or weaken local labor markets.
Using U.S. county-level data from the 1990-2013 period, we estimate a series of instrumental variable regressions on a variety of economic outcomes. Our instruments are derived from a novel matching process and prove to be strong. Our results suggest that productivity growth was inversely associated with employment and population growth in the “red-hot” 1990s, but this relationship turned neutral or even slightly positive after the year 2000 when the U.S. economy greatly slowed. In particular, local productivity growth was inversely associated with job growth pre-2000, but there was a positive link in the 2010-2013, though not the one-for-one association expected from standard neoclassical economic models. Our results do not suggest that having a fast-productivity growth composition of industries (e.g., advanced technology) is a salvation for local economies, especially when other strategies such as human capital formation appear to be much more effective.
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