Inferring the causes of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England and Wales
讲座名称：
Inferring the causes of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England and Wales
讲座时间：
2015-04-08
讲座人：
He Daihai
形式：
校区：
兴庆校区
实践学分：
讲座内容：
应数学与统计学院邀请，香港理工大学He Daihai教授2015年4月8日访问我校进行科研合作交流活动，在此期间将做以下学术报告。
报告题目：Inferring the causes of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England and Wales.
报告时间：2015年4月8日（星期三）上午10:15
报告地点：理科楼202
Abstract: Past influenza pandemics appear to be characterized by multiple waves of incidence, but the mechanisms that account for this phenomenon remain unclear. We propose a simple epidemic model, which incorporates three factors that might contribute to the generation of multiple waves: (i) schools opening and closing, (ii) temperature changes during the outbreak, and (iii) changes in human behaviour in response to the outbreak. We fit this model to the reported influenza mortality during the 1918 pandemic in 334 UK administrative units and estimate the epidemiological parameters. We then use information criteria to evaluate how well these three factors explain the observed patterns of mortality. Our results indicate that all three factors are important but that behavioural responses had the largest effect. The parameter values that produce the best fit are biologically reasonable and yield epidemiological dynamics that match the observed data well.
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